Based on culminated predictions on how the world may look in 2150, with a population of 10 billion, sea level rise of 2m, temperature rise on average of 2 degrees Celsius. I admit the border changes are somewhat radical but had to make it interesting!There is now an Updated Version!Part of the early history of my science fiction universe See more of my work here!
Revolutions continue in the Middle East and North Africa. Slowly the world climbs out of recession and the global economy begins to grow once again. Severe weather events occur more often.
In the late 2020s another particularly severe economic downturn causes the EU to reform as the highly integrated NEU, including just France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland. The UK is offered membership but declines, becoming increasingly self-sufficient. The Southern European states try to form a Mediterranean economic community in retaliation but it is fragile by comparison and never achieves a great degree of integration. For half the years of 2020 no international wars are fought, and the rate of death in war declines slightly from its all-time low in the 2010s.
Much of the Middle East's oil is exhausted - Russia experiences a rapid period of economic growth as the major provider of fossil fuels (as do other alternative countries such as Canada, Nigeria and Venezuela) expanding into the melting arctic and, increasingly, food as global warming opens up vast tracts of arable land in Siberia - in the most of the rest of the world it is drying up. As the world’s interest in the Middle East diminishes the region fades back into insignificance and destabilizes. Many countries in Northern and Central Africa destabilise, becoming failed states as a side effect of global warming. This is counterbalanced by the ground-hugging death rates in war everywhere else despite unpopular US led interventions in Nigeria, Venezuela and Colombia. A combined effort from numerous countries including China, Russia, India, Brazil, the NEU and the USA sends a manned mission to Mars using a VASMIR driven spacecraft.
Competition between the rising power of Russia and the new economic superpower of China results in the brief Sino-Russian War, one small tactical nuclear device is detonated at a military base on the Tibetan Plateau, another several kilometres outside Ulaan Bator during the Chinese occupation, but the war fizzles out after 4 years as the UN is able to mediate a truce, the two countries making concessions to each other - China is allowed land north of Beijing and Russia is granted greater influence in the collapsing Central Asian states. However, China continues to assert its claims to Mongolia, claiming to be staving off government collapse. Sea level rise has reached 30 centimetres, triggering the first in a wave of evacuations from Bangladesh. Much of the Southern USA, Central Asia, Northern and Central Africa and Southern Europe are suffering from rapid desertification. Cities such as London and New York are threatened by flooding before the development of huge, self-sustaining sea-concrete walls. The area around the Sahara desert and the Middle East are now among the only places in the world within which international war is common – the breakdown of government caused by climate change leads to the infighting.
As the world’s economy recovers from the conflicts in the 2030s and 2040s, the news is dominated by largely uncontrolled mass immigration out of Africa and Central Asia. Although the effects of climate change will continue to worsen, by the 2050s the majority of the world’s energy comes from renewables, with large carbon capture projects underway and huge solar farms set up in the abandoned equatorial regions. Sea level rise has reached 1 meter and is beginning to slow; richer countries such as the UK, Denmark, the USA and China construct sea walls to secure their large cities, whilst poorer nations have no choice but to move inland. The melting of the Arctic has opened up opportunities for trade between the NEU, Canada and Russia. In an attempt to slow migration into Europe, the NEU direct huge amounts of funding at the North African countries. Commercial Nuclear fusion is perfected in the NEU and quickly spreads. The world’s first Turing-compliant AI is produced by a combination of South Korean and Japanese scientists, and 3D printing technology, which has been growing in precision since the 2020’s, becomes commonplace in the developed world. In a shock move, the UN passes a resolution to form a permanent peacekeeping army with contributions from its richest member nations. The UNPCF begins it’s ‘War on War’, a policy of occupying and pacifying the Middle Eastern and African nations where violence has started up again.
The UNPCF is invested with greater powers to deal with the refugee crisis - it sets up 'visionary' Freestates (basically welfare blocs/population dumps) in Greenland and Western Antarctica and coordinates the flow, forcing northern states such as Canada, the NEU and Russia to accept huge numbers of refugees in return for economic support. China and the USA are no longer leaders of a bipolar world, as they have to divert much of their resources towards conservation projects within their own borders whilst the aforementioned northern states grow increasingly influential. North Korea collapses after years of extreme weather, turmoil, military coups and civil war - South Korea, now just Korea, takes over under the supervision of international observers. The standard of life in former North Korea improves rapidly. Over the course of the mid-2060s, China enters a transition to democracy. AIs, generally recognized to be Turing-compliant, are now commonplace in the developed world. Sea-concrete based construction materials are used to create large offshore ‘floating cities’, particularly common in the Pacific. Both Quebec and Greenland gain independence in this decade thanks to their booming economies.
The European Republic is formed as the NEU starts allowing southern and eastern European states to join, on the condition that they are stable. This results in the formation of a number of confederations, particularly in Iberia, the Baltic and the Balkans. Increasingly, countries follow the European example, uniting to form the African Union and the Sub-Continental Federation, or economic blocs such as those found in South America and the Pacific. The first space elevator is completed in the final years of this decade - built on the northern coast of Brazil near to the old location of ESAs spaceport in Guiana. This follows a manned mission to the Jovian moons, and the establishment of a permanent series of Earth-Mars transit spacecraft based on VASMIR and fusion drives. Mexico becomes a semi-autonomous 51st state of the USA.
This decade sees the final collapse of many central African countries, leading to a renewed surge in refugee numbers. Fortunately the world has adapted and with the help of UNPCF, is able to deal with them fairly efficiently, moving them into entirely new cities that have sprung up in Western Antarctica, Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, New Zealand and Southern Argentina and Chile. Within such nations, personal enhancement and longevity treatments extend life expectancy and has begun to cure many diseases, most notably all the common forms of cancer. After heavy international pressure the WTO and other organizations alter trade laws to favour developing countries; this permits an influx of clean technology and personal enhancement which prevents absolute poverty from increasing in collapsing nations despite the effects of climate change. With the massive reduction in the costs of getting material to orbit small but nonetheless permanent colonies on the Moon and Mars are also established in this decade.
Many countries are now fully adapted to climate change, thanks to efficient refugee processing centres, new infrastructure projects and advances in technology. Despite this, large sections of Africa, Central Asia and the Southern USA are rendered uninhabitable. The world is now fairly evenly divided into large socio-economic blocs and appears to be entering the 22nd century a far more stable place. The second orbital elevator is completed, this time in Indonesia. Non-intrusive augmented reality technologies, such as virtual contact lenses, are now being replaced with direct-to-brain entoptic projection. AIs now exist which are thousands of times more intelligent than humans, and serve many important functions in the global economy. Sea level rise reaches 2 meters.
The world’s third orbital elevator is completed in West Africa, as is the first kilometer scale space station. Earth's orbital infrastructure is expanding rapidly as the cost of transporting materials to orbit declines. The Moon and several asteroids are being mined extensively for materials to fuel expansion into space. The population of the Earth has reached 10 billion, as growth begins to level off on Earth, but a steady increase can be seen in all other areas of the solar system. During this decade, the number of people living in absolute poverty begins to decrease from around 900 million, which has been fairly constant throughout the century as rising standards of living clash with climate change. The last interstate war is fought between two collapsed sub-Saharan African nations, and a coalition of the UNs peacekeeping forces quickly quells it.
I am aware this doesn't explain everything, but I will try and answer any questions. Comments welcome!